The Future of Work

The Digital Path to Prosperity for the Caribbean Region

 

Perry C. Douglas,                                                                                                                 

 

…in the Future

 

 

Recently, the Prime Minister of Barbados, Hon. Mia Mottley, in an attempt to promote the Barbados economy amid a global pandemic, invited people from all over the world to ‘come and work remotely in Barbados.’  Her efforts were a "Hail Mary" attempt to try and save the Barbadian economy, by leveraging the ‘work-from-home’ trend, which has been exponentially accelerated by the pandemic.  Her efforts thus far have not been successful.  This was primarily a reactionary move, naïve in nature, and without foresight. 

 

COVID-19 did not suddenly change the future-of-work, instead, it exponentially sped up the application of technology relative to work.  Digital technology was able to be applied to new circumstances.  Workers with the necessary level of education and skill, for example, adapted quickly, however, those more ‘manual’ workers have had a harder time at it.   

 

Those of us who can leverage digitization, work from home and adjust accordingly will make it through these transitional times, those who cannot will experience anxious and challenging financial times ahead.      

 

The economic divide will continue to grow and so will inequality—within societies, among countries, and regions.  

 

COVID has accelerated change and advanced technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the future of work.  Accordingly, a clear technology-based opportunity path for  leapfrogging the region into prosperity, on a global scale, exists. 

 

However, that path must be paved in a sound foundational mindset and with courage, coupled with creativity and preparation to adapt to a future world.  Reactionary moves similar to the one the Barbados Government did will not 'cut' it in the new economy, a proactive disposition is required instead. 

 

Preparation in multiple spheres of activity gives societies the necessary flexibility, ready to take on all challenges.  The retooling, upskilling or reskilling in a technology-based ecosystem is central to the proper laying of the success path.  Therefore, those individuals and economies that can increase their relevance and add real economic value to the global economy, will thrive!  Those who cannot, won't. 

 

 

The Opportunity

The late Apple Founder, Steve Jobs once said: “Technology is nothing. What's important is that you have a faith in people, that they're basically good and smart, and if you give them tools, they'll do wonderful things with them.”  In short, Caribbean leadership (business, government, institutions, people) must develop robust policy and invest in technology-infrastructure, education, and skills training.  Again, as Job’s said: “give them tools, they’ll do wonderful things.”  

 

As the new economy builds up steam and the reality that one can work effectively from anywhere, the more the new normal crystallizes.  The ability for employers not to be limited to their borders is increasingly becoming more attractive for the enterprise.  Therefore, workers in Canada for example, no longer have the ‘protection’ of living ‘in Canada’ as being a competitive advantage to their prosperity trajectory.  Technology has a way of levelling the opportunity playing field. 

 

The remote-work option has increased the global competition dynamics for workers, and businesses, putting meaningful pressures on both workers and employers.  We’ve already seen Facebook, for example, decreasing salaries of staff who’ve decided to move away from high-priced Silicon Valley and work remotely anywhere in the country.  And at the same time hiring talent from anywhere in the world working remotely.  One of the biggest challenges that developed economies are now facing, in the transition to the new economy, is finding top talent.  Now skilled workers everywhere are competing against the world's supply of workers.  A study released in January 2020 by Manpower Group found that 54 percent of companies worldwide reported the real possibility of a significant skills shortage developing.  Therefore, significant risk exists for those individuals and economies that do not recognize the urgency of the evolving 'future-of-work.'  At the same time, an enormous opportunity exists for those Caribbean economies that can re-imagine the future of work. 

Historian, Yuval Noah Harari, offers some insight to the future-of-work and predicts that just as mass industrialization created the working class, the AI (Artificial Intelligence) revolution will create a new “unworking” class. Harari’s work poses a simple but bracing question:

“What should we do with all the superfluous people, once we have highly intelligent non-conscious algorithms that can do almost everything better than humans?” 

 

Nevertheless, regardless of Harari's thoughts, there is still opportunity, depending on your ability to adapt to the new technology environment.  AI from an operational stand point dramatically increases efficiencies and improves our lives greatly, however, it is still humans and societies working optimally with machines that continue to create true value for humanity.  Therefore, it will be those individuals that can adapt to AI that will create exceptional value and advance their societies; and thrive in the digital age.

 

“World inequality today exists because during the 19th and 20th centuries some nations were able to take advantage of the Industrial Revolution and technologies and methods of organisation that it brought while others are unable to do so. Technological change is only one of the engines of prosperity, but it is perhaps the most critical one.”                                                                                         Why Nations Fail, p271

 

Once again, we turn to Yuval Noah Harari for insight in a historical context, as he defines the future of value through the evolving technology landscape: 

 

 “In the 21st century we might witness the creation of a massive new unworking class: people devoid of any economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity, power and glory of society.  This “useless class” will not merely be unemployed — it will be unemployable.”

 

In other words, in the future, an individuals value to an economy's productivity will be dependent on their ability to create value holistically, or where the machine cannot.  The question then becomes: how will Caribbean societies remain relevant and not be left behind in the new rapidly advancing new economy?  How will its citizens be productive and create value for their societies in an advancing global civilization?  The Caribbean region's long-term socioeconomic sustainability will depend on answering those fundamental questions. 

 

Nevertheless, there does exists a clear path for the Caribbean to build supply where demand exists, while at the same time positioning itself to leapfrog onto the new global economy's prosperity curve.  The Caribbean region has an opportunity to employ long-term thinking and strategies at this critical juncture in time, and begin its investment towards building a highly-skilled, productive and resilient workforce.  

 

A workforce that can compete confidently on a global basis.  

 

Economics is not a morality play, most successful enterprises merely seeks the utility of scarce resources, leveraged in a cost-effectively to create extraordinary value for that enterprise.  Notwithstanding, it would help tremendously if individuals and society can also set their own winning conditions, and environment to attract the high-value enterprises to their shores.  Being well prepared will leave one equally well-positioned to prosper in the 'future-of-work.'  Opening up skilled Caribbean workers to become highly productive assets to corporate teams anywhere in the world.  

 

A country like Canada, for example, has lots of natural resources which will allow it to continue to earn decent incomes even into the new economy.  However, the Caribbean does not have such vast resources, at least those that can meaningfully grow or sustain their economies in the future world.  An economy like Trinidad for example has seen global oil prices retreat from a high of $150 per barrel years ago down to around $38pb today.  Such a dramatic cut in revenue for any nation is problematic at best, but for small island economies it is acutely negative.  Therefore, with the developing Green-economy and climate change mitigation advancing on a global scale, we should not be holding our collective breaths for a climb back to higher prices.   

 

In the new economy, data/information is the the new oil, the new land...the most important commodity; however, skilled human resources remains a valuable and productive resource.  For individuals and societies to remain productive and relevant in the new world, without fear of being replaced, adaptation to the future of work is the paramount agenda.  The creative and innovative individuals and societies  who can leverage their skills and training most relevant to the digital world complex, will prosper.  Those that do not will be left behind.   

 

To bend the region's prosperity curve steeply in an upwards trajectory, an educated, highly skilled and tech-savvy workforce must be developed, for any chance at long-term inter-generational wealth creation, in the region.

 

Preparation for Success

 

Once again, we take a look at the actions of the Prime Minister of Barbados, Hon. Mia Mottley.  Announcing the intention for Barbados to remove Queen Elizabeth as its head of state and become a republic.  Mottley commented: "The time has come to fully leave our colonial past behind."  After 55 years, Barbados is only coming into this mindset now?  Therefore, we are in the middle of a pandemic and a digital revolution, bold innovative thinking followed by firm-performance based action is required.  In other words, minuscule ceremonial moves that have no significant measurable future impact on the economic prosperity of the Bajan citizens, is an inherent waste of time.

 

Bold new innovative thinking based on science and optimization, supported by historical data is required.  Rigorous fact-based decisioning and relentless iteration is the most viable path forward; towards effective, sustainable, executable, and measurable solutions, for meaningful outcomes.  Big moves are required; not weak ones, for which we have become accustomed to for the sake of political expediancy.  

   

If you can imagine for a moment.  A highly-skilled software engineer who graduated from UWI.  In the old economy, such professionals like these had to move to North America or Europe to find the income levels matching to their skill set.  However, in the new economy, that same engineer can now simply market his or her skills to the global marketplace.  With the same level of education and with all things being equal, a starting salary of US$150K, for example, to a Grenadian engineer ‘working-from-home’ would see that income go significantly further, than if they were living in high-priced Toronto; for example.  Such a reality would significantly boost the local middle-class and also help the nation and region leapfrog into the global middle-class.  The economic impact of an expanding Caribbean middle-class population earning on par US dollars cannot be overstated.   

 

Such a manufactured dynamic will be a game-changer! 

 

 

Globalization is here to stay, and your strategy for dealing with it will determine your prosperity.  High demand for skilled workers to expand the rapidly advancing global economy will drive up pay-cheques everywhere, however, the Caribbean citizens' ability to participate will depend on serious vision, planning and leadership.  The Caribbean has a unique opportunity to accentuate its competitive supply advantage characteristic of human capital, but long-term sustainable prosperity will only come through strategic thinking and positioning, and real aggressive actions.   

 

What-ever the desired outcome, success will not come without proper education and training, the building of deep platform ecosystems, and infrastructure investment, and cultural mindset shifts.  Investment in education at all levels is required, with a focus on science and math to enable technology/digital-led economic expansion.  A move to making Wi-Fi accessible 'island-wide,' particularly to the youth in rural locations—where a rapid move to virtual learning must be given immediate priority to close the knowledge gap in order to level the playing field.  Caribbean students must have access to the same or better information technology as a child sitting in Toronto or San Francisco--to create a future of a highly employable workforce necessary to compete on the global stage.  

 

Building a technology infrastructure ecosystem to facilitate everything from electronic payments ecosystems to Virtual Health/Medicine, is a must!  Diversification of the economy away from a tourism- dominated one is key.  The application of AI can be intelligently applied to green energy production, manufacturing, agriculture—the entire process can be controlled...from farming and manufacturing to digital sales and marketing.  The benefit of technology is that it allows the Caribbean to move from a low revenue commodity exporter to one that can control the entire supply chain, particularly the last component, which typically provides the highest value-added. 

 

The successful application of AI technologies here, whether necessary to deploy strategic workforce planning, skill development, or product development to accelerate the enterprise's digital advantage, will be paramount.  AI platforms will become indispensable tools in achieving exponential growth through global digital commerce. 

 

Some “expert” thinkers have warned that once artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, it may exterminate humankind before we realize it.  Some also see AI running the planet, and transforming the entire known universe into a giant supercomputer.  I do not subscribe to such unfounded fears; instead, I believe AI will make our lives considerably better!  However, mindset and decision-making towards how AI is approached, adapted and applied, in the context of the "future-of-work", will ultimately determine an individual or society's rise or demise by hands of artificial intelligence itself.

 

In a Historical Context

 

Remember, the Caribbean wealth gap is over 400 years in the making...from the plantation slave economies to colonialism, through the extraction of natural resources by Europeans to Europe...to be manufactured into goods for trade and commerce.  This iterative process drove new industries and created wealthy European economies and families over time.

 

Again, least not we forget that the European Renaissance...the British Empire and general European expansion was essentially financed off of slavery.  The extraction of free labour and natural resources allowed for massive profit margins in trade and commerce.  Allowing European states to spend lavishly on castles, estates, luxuries, science and engineering, the commissioning of great works of art, and the spawning of new business.   

 

Accordingly, if we can control our economics...from resource extraction, processing, manufacturing, to sales/marketing, and digital commerce--leading to a sustainable product and services export economy--then, we can dominate and steer our own inter-generational wealth curve trajectory. 

 

Why can't we create a Caribbean Renaissance of our own?                

 

Wealth creation is driven by mindset, which is a choice, and so too is the chosen growth trajectory a nation decides upon; none of which is an inevitability nor predetermined.  Therefore, decisions matter, and the critical decision facing the Caribbean today, is one of acceptance and adaptation to the prevailing new economic reality.  A reality whereby the more resilient economies of the world are the ones that have become strategic and increasingly diverse and digital.   

 

We, therefore, need to build that road map with attainable milestones and the necessary measurement tools to help determine whether we are making the necessary progress. 

 

Historically, the future wealth of any nation is directly correlated to its productivity gains, derived through technology investments that drive efficiency and innovation.  The Caribbean region now stands at a critical juncture in time, a cross roads, whether to be transformative, to weaponize itself to leapfrog onto the global prosperity scene; or not?   Whether to drive responsible policy and position itself to where it can bend its own collective productivity curve; or not?   To strive for the quantum—more efficient and inclusive outward-looking economies where all of its citizens can participate and benefit in the collective wealth it can create.